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The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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There are a number of possible explanations for this.

One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.

Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”

Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.

Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.

“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.

Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.

The study’s focus on 12 cities makes it just a snapshot of the true heat wave death toll across the continent, which researchers estimate could be up to tens of thousands of people.
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“Heatwaves don’t leave a trail of destruction like wildfires or storms,” said Ben Clarke, a study author and a researcher at Imperial College London. “Their impacts are mostly invisible but quietly devastating — a change of just 2 or 3 degrees Celsius can mean the difference between life and death for thousands of people.”
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The world must stop burning fossil fuels to stop heat waves becoming hotter and deadlier and cities need to urgently adapt, said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. “Shifting to renewable energy, building cities that can withstand extreme heat, and protecting the poorest and most vulnerable is absolutely essential,” she said.

Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the University of Reading who was not involved in the analysis, said “robust techniques used in this study leave no doubt that climate change is already a deadly force in Europe.”

Richard Allan, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading who was also not involved in the report, said the study added to huge amounts of evidence that climate change is making heat waves more intense, “meaning that moderate heat becomes dangerous and record heat becomes unprecedented.”

It’s not just heat that’s being supercharged in out hotter world, Allan added. “As one part of the globe bakes and burns, another region can suffer intense rainfall and catastrophic flooding.”

Extreme views can give influencers higher clicks, more audience and a more lucrative brand, Caulfield said, so the incentive is clear to steer towards those ideologies. “And the sad thing is that, the more it becomes about ideology, the harder it is to change people’s minds, because it is about belonging to a community.”
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There are strategies to counter the misinformation, though. It’s important to do it in a respectful and constructive way, even when it comes from influencers some may dismiss as “frivolous,” Caulfield said. “Pre-bunking” can also help, he added — getting out ahead of the misinformation, and making people aware of the tactics used to push it.
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For others, the focus is much more on the other platforms hosting these influencers. Hood is pushing for more clarity on climate policies, and for measures including bans on amplifying and monetizing content that clearly contradicts climate science.

He also called on regulators to take a hard look at the products and services being sold on Instagram and other platforms. “It is the Wild West,” he said.

Meta, which owns Instagram, declined to comment. The company has policies to counter misinformation, including international teams of fact checkers which evaluate climate science content. When they rate posts as false, they can reduce distribution and add warning labels, and accounts that repeatedly offend can lose the ability to advertise or monetize.

But for experts like Hood, there is simply not enough being done to tackle a problem with such alarming implications.

As the climate crisis continues to fuel more frequent and more severe extreme weather events, it is creating perfect conditions for climate denial and misinformation to flourish across these parts of the wellness community.

“The dark side of wellness has always been there. It’s just now we see it,” Simmons said.

Extreme views can give influencers higher clicks, more audience and a more lucrative brand, Caulfield said, so the incentive is clear to steer towards those ideologies. “And the sad thing is that, the more it becomes about ideology, the harder it is to change people’s minds, because it is about belonging to a community.”
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There are strategies to counter the misinformation, though. It’s important to do it in a respectful and constructive way, even when it comes from influencers some may dismiss as “frivolous,” Caulfield said. “Pre-bunking” can also help, he added — getting out ahead of the misinformation, and making people aware of the tactics used to push it.
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For others, the focus is much more on the other platforms hosting these influencers. Hood is pushing for more clarity on climate policies, and for measures including bans on amplifying and monetizing content that clearly contradicts climate science.

He also called on regulators to take a hard look at the products and services being sold on Instagram and other platforms. “It is the Wild West,” he said.

Meta, which owns Instagram, declined to comment. The company has policies to counter misinformation, including international teams of fact checkers which evaluate climate science content. When they rate posts as false, they can reduce distribution and add warning labels, and accounts that repeatedly offend can lose the ability to advertise or monetize.

But for experts like Hood, there is simply not enough being done to tackle a problem with such alarming implications.

As the climate crisis continues to fuel more frequent and more severe extreme weather events, it is creating perfect conditions for climate denial and misinformation to flourish across these parts of the wellness community.

“The dark side of wellness has always been there. It’s just now we see it,” Simmons said.

Roughly 90 minutes after President Donald Trump spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25, Trump’s political appointees at the White House’s budget office were already ordering the Pentagon to freeze security funding for Ukraine, newly released government documents show.
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“Based on guidance I have received and in light of the Administration’s plan to review assistance to Ukraine, including the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, please hold off on any additional DoD obligations of these funds, pending direction from that process,” Mike Duffey, the White House official in the Office of Management and Budget responsible for overseeing national security money and a Trump political appointee, wrote to select OMB and Pentagon officials on July 25.

Duffey’s email suggests that he knew the hold could raise concerns.

US President Donald Trump speaks during a summit on transforming mental health treatment to combat homelessness, violence and substance abuse at the White House campus on December 19, 2019 in Washington,DC. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
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“Given the sensitive nature of the request, I appreciate your keeping that information closely held to those who need to know to execute direction,” Duffey said.

While a formal notification would be sent later that day, this was the first clear sign that the aid was being held – a short time after the phone call in which Trump pressed Zelensky for investigations that could boost Trump politically.
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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer renewed his call for Duffey to be a witness at the Senate impeachment trial, saying that the email showcases the information he may be able to offer.

“If there was ever an argument that we need Mr. Duffey to come testify, this is that information. This email is explosive. A top administration official, one that we requested, is saying, stop the aid 90 minutes after Trump called Zelensky and said keep it hush, hush. What more do you need to request a witness?” Schumer said at a news conference in New York on Sunday.

The budget office dismissed linking the hold of the aid to the call, noting it was announced at a mid-July interagency meeting.

“It’s reckless to tie the hold of funds to the phone call. As has been established and publicly reported, the hold was announced in an interagency meeting on July 18. To pull a line out of one email and fail to address the context is misleading and inaccurate,” Rachel Semmel, a spokeswoman for the OMB, said in a statement to CNN.

While an OMB official notified other agencies of the freeze on July 18, it is notable that the first official action to withhold Pentagon aid came the same day as Trump’s call with Zelensky.

The call between Trump and Zelensky went from 9:03 am to 9:33 am and then the email from OMB’s Duffey is time stamped at 11:04 am. That same email also appears elsewhere in the same batch released Friday with a 3:03 pm time stamp.

A judge ordered the OMB and the Pentagon to hand the documents over to the Center for Public Integrity Friday in response to a FOIA request. The Center for Public Integrity published the documents late Friday night.

While much of the release was redacted, the documents shed some light on the conversations between two government organizations who were carrying out the President’s orders even amid concerns by some that they could run afoul of the law.

One of the earliest signs of President Trump’s concerns about the funds stems from a June 19 article in the Washington Examiner discussing the congressionally approved military aid for Ukraine totaling $250 million.

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