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Scientists mapped what happens if a crucial system of ocean currents collapses. The weather impact would be extreme
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The collapse of a crucial network of Atlantic Ocean currents could push parts of the world into a deep freeze, with winter temperatures plunging to around minus 55 degrees Fahrenheit in some cities, bringing “profound climate and societal impacts,” according to a new study.
There is increasing concern about the future of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — known as the AMOC — a system of currents that works like a giant conveyor belt, pulling warm water from the Southern Hemisphere and tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, where it cools, sinks and flows back south.
Multiple studies suggest the AMOC is weakening with some projecting it could even collapse this century as global warming disrupts the balance of heat and salinity that keeps it moving. This would usher in huge global weather and climate shifts — including plunging temperatures in Europe, which relies on the AMOC for its mild climate.
What’s less clear, however, is how these impacts will unfold in a world heated up by humans burning fossil fuels.
“What if the AMOC collapses and we have climate change? Does the cooling win or does the warming win?” asked Rene van Westen, a marine and atmospheric researcher at Utrecht University in the Netherlands and co-author of the paper published Wednesday in the Geophysical Research Letters journal.
This new study is the first to use a modern, complex climate model to answer the question, he told CNN.
The researchers looked at a scenario where the AMOC weakens by 80% and the Earth is around 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the period before humans began burning large amounts of fossil fuels. The planet is currently at 1.2 degrees of warming.
They focused on what would happen as the climate stabilized post-collapse, multiple decades into the future.
Even in this hotter world, they found “substantial cooling” over Europe with sharp drops in average winter temperatures and more intense cold extremes — a very different picture than the United States, where the study found temperatures would continue to increase even with an AMOC collapse.
Sea ice would spread southward as far as Scandinavia, parts of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, the research found. This would have a huge impact on cold extremes as the white surface of the ice reflects the sun’s energy back into space, amplifying cooling.
The scientists have created an interactive map to visualize the impacts of an AMOC collapse across the globe.
NASA scientists are in a state of anxious limbo after the Trump administration proposed a budget that would eliminate one of the United States’ top climate labs – the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, or GISS – as a standalone entity.
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In its place, it would move some of the lab’s functions into a broader environmental modeling effort across the agency.
Career specialists are now working remotely, awaiting details and even more unsure about their future at the lab after they were kicked out of their longtime home in New York City last week. Closing the lab for good could jeopardize its value and the country’s leadership role in global climate science, sources say.
“It’s an absolute sh*tshow,” one GISS scientist said under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. “Morale at GISS has never been lower, and it feels for all of us that we are being abandoned by NASA leadership.”
“We are supposedly going to be integrated into this new virtual NASA modeling institute, but (we have) no idea what that will actually look like,” they said.
NASA is defending its budget proposal, with a nod toward the lab’s future.
“NASA’s GISS has a significant place in the history of space science and its work is critical for the Earth Science Division, particularly as the division looks to the future of its modeling work and capabilities,” NASA spokesperson Cheryl Warner said in a statement.
“Fundamental contributions in research and applications from GISS directly impact daily life by showing the Earth system connections that impact the air we breathe, our health, the food we grow, and the cities we live in,” Warner said.
GISS has a storied history in climate science on the global scale.
James Hansen, a former director, first called national attention to human-caused global warming at a Senate hearing during the hot summer of 1988. The lab, founded in 1961, is still known worldwide for its computer modeling of the planet that enable scientists to make projections for how climate change may affect global temperatures, precipitation, extreme weather events and other variables.
NASA scientists are in a state of anxious limbo after the Trump administration proposed a budget that would eliminate one of the United States’ top climate labs – the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, or GISS – as a standalone entity.
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In its place, it would move some of the lab’s functions into a broader environmental modeling effort across the agency.
Career specialists are now working remotely, awaiting details and even more unsure about their future at the lab after they were kicked out of their longtime home in New York City last week. Closing the lab for good could jeopardize its value and the country’s leadership role in global climate science, sources say.
“It’s an absolute sh*tshow,” one GISS scientist said under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. “Morale at GISS has never been lower, and it feels for all of us that we are being abandoned by NASA leadership.”
“We are supposedly going to be integrated into this new virtual NASA modeling institute, but (we have) no idea what that will actually look like,” they said.
NASA is defending its budget proposal, with a nod toward the lab’s future.
“NASA’s GISS has a significant place in the history of space science and its work is critical for the Earth Science Division, particularly as the division looks to the future of its modeling work and capabilities,” NASA spokesperson Cheryl Warner said in a statement.
“Fundamental contributions in research and applications from GISS directly impact daily life by showing the Earth system connections that impact the air we breathe, our health, the food we grow, and the cities we live in,” Warner said.
GISS has a storied history in climate science on the global scale.
James Hansen, a former director, first called national attention to human-caused global warming at a Senate hearing during the hot summer of 1988. The lab, founded in 1961, is still known worldwide for its computer modeling of the planet that enable scientists to make projections for how climate change may affect global temperatures, precipitation, extreme weather events and other variables.
NASA scientists are in a state of anxious limbo after the Trump administration proposed a budget that would eliminate one of the United States’ top climate labs – the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, or GISS – as a standalone entity.
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In its place, it would move some of the lab’s functions into a broader environmental modeling effort across the agency.
Career specialists are now working remotely, awaiting details and even more unsure about their future at the lab after they were kicked out of their longtime home in New York City last week. Closing the lab for good could jeopardize its value and the country’s leadership role in global climate science, sources say.
“It’s an absolute sh*tshow,” one GISS scientist said under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. “Morale at GISS has never been lower, and it feels for all of us that we are being abandoned by NASA leadership.”
“We are supposedly going to be integrated into this new virtual NASA modeling institute, but (we have) no idea what that will actually look like,” they said.
NASA is defending its budget proposal, with a nod toward the lab’s future.
“NASA’s GISS has a significant place in the history of space science and its work is critical for the Earth Science Division, particularly as the division looks to the future of its modeling work and capabilities,” NASA spokesperson Cheryl Warner said in a statement.
“Fundamental contributions in research and applications from GISS directly impact daily life by showing the Earth system connections that impact the air we breathe, our health, the food we grow, and the cities we live in,” Warner said.
GISS has a storied history in climate science on the global scale.
James Hansen, a former director, first called national attention to human-caused global warming at a Senate hearing during the hot summer of 1988. The lab, founded in 1961, is still known worldwide for its computer modeling of the planet that enable scientists to make projections for how climate change may affect global temperatures, precipitation, extreme weather events and other variables.
Deep below the surface of the ground in one of the driest parts of the country, there is a looming problem: The water is running out — but not the kind that fills lakes, streams and reservoirs.
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The amount of groundwater that has been pumped out of the Colorado River Basin since 2003 is enough to fill Lake Mead, researchers report in a study published earlier this week. Most of that water was used to irrigate fields of alfalfa and vegetables grown in the desert Southwest.
No one knows exactly how much is left, but the study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows an alarming rate of withdrawal of a vital water source for a region that could also see its supply of Colorado River water shrink.
“We’re using it faster and faster,” said Jay Famiglietti, an Arizona State University professor and the study’s senior author.
In the past two decades, groundwater basins – or large, underground aquifers – lost more than twice the amount of water that was taken out of major surface reservoirs, Famiglietti’s team found, like Mead and Lake Powell, which themselves have seen water levels crash.
The Arizona State University research team measured more than two decades of NASA satellite observations and used land modeling to trace how groundwater tables in the Colorado River basin were dwindling. The team focused mostly on Arizona, a state that is particularly vulnerable to future cutbacks on the Colorado River.
Groundwater makes up about 35% of the total water supply for Arizona, said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, who was not directly involved in the study.
The study found groundwater tables in the Lower Colorado River basin, and Arizona in particular, have declined significantly in the last decade. The problem is especially pronounced in Arizona’s rural areas, many of which don’t have groundwater regulations, and little backup supply from rivers. With wells in rural Arizona increasingly running dry, farmers and homeowners now drill thousands of feet into the ground to access water.
Scientists don’t know exactly how much groundwater is left in Arizona, Famiglietti added, but the signs are troubling.
“We have seen dry stream beds for decades,” he said. “That’s an indication that the connection between groundwater and rivers has been lost.”
NASA scientists are in a state of anxious limbo after the Trump administration proposed a budget that would eliminate one of the United States’ top climate labs – the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, or GISS – as a standalone entity.
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In its place, it would move some of the lab’s functions into a broader environmental modeling effort across the agency.
Career specialists are now working remotely, awaiting details and even more unsure about their future at the lab after they were kicked out of their longtime home in New York City last week. Closing the lab for good could jeopardize its value and the country’s leadership role in global climate science, sources say.
“It’s an absolute sh*tshow,” one GISS scientist said under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. “Morale at GISS has never been lower, and it feels for all of us that we are being abandoned by NASA leadership.”
“We are supposedly going to be integrated into this new virtual NASA modeling institute, but (we have) no idea what that will actually look like,” they said.
NASA is defending its budget proposal, with a nod toward the lab’s future.
“NASA’s GISS has a significant place in the history of space science and its work is critical for the Earth Science Division, particularly as the division looks to the future of its modeling work and capabilities,” NASA spokesperson Cheryl Warner said in a statement.
“Fundamental contributions in research and applications from GISS directly impact daily life by showing the Earth system connections that impact the air we breathe, our health, the food we grow, and the cities we live in,” Warner said.
GISS has a storied history in climate science on the global scale.
James Hansen, a former director, first called national attention to human-caused global warming at a Senate hearing during the hot summer of 1988. The lab, founded in 1961, is still known worldwide for its computer modeling of the planet that enable scientists to make projections for how climate change may affect global temperatures, precipitation, extreme weather events and other variables.